The bottom-level condition races at Rosecroft are usually interesting to explore for value, and Race 8 on the Sunday, Nov. 4, program is even more so given a blanket computerized morning line.
The predicted favorite—B Fast Eddie, the only one of nine in the race that isn’t dropping one condition level—is listed at 4-1, and the longest shot on the line is listed at 10-1. Seven horses are between 9-2 and 7-1.
It’s not impossible for a final odds board to have most horses in close range. But the morning-line odds, based on standard points assigned to each value, add up to 133, which is about 14-15 points too high based on the pari-mutuel “takeout” rate for win wagers at Rosecroft. So expect more than one horse to be double-digits.
(The odds in any race would ideally total 100 points, but morning-line makers have traditionally added points based on the percentage of money removed from the pool—takeout.)
Part of handicapping and betting horses to win involves determining acceptable odds for the investment, and that varies from bettor to bettor. The odds at Rosecroft can often change dramatically with less than one minute to post time, so there may not be much time to make that assessment. A strong morning line can help with advance handicapping—but often it’s best to set your own.
There are races you can look at on paper a few days in advance and identify the horse or horses you plan to use regardless of odds. And then there are those like Race 8 tonight.
Here’s a look at a few races on the Sunday, Nov. 4, program:
Allie’s Finale, who was away almost three months after a summer sire stakes campaign at Ocean Downs, won back-to-back qualifiers and on Oct. 28 returned to the pari-mutuel wars with a useful fourth-place finish behind a couple of pacers who regularly hang in Rosecroft’s top overnight events. He’s the favorite on the computerized morning line but there is enough quality is this condition event to think he’ll go off at a fair price.
This is an interesting “non-winners of $2,500 in the last five starts” condition pace with two horses—Sizz Matty and Art Again—who won the same condition in their last outings. But Foxland, who arguably exits the toughest race based on the competition, moves all the way inside after two starts from post 9 and can come home as fast or faster than any of these.
Stakeout didn’t have the best fortune in his last three starts at Meadowlands but returns to Rosecroft, where he seems to do his best work. In his last appearance here in late September he was a fairly easy winner after being hard-used through a 1:23 third-quarter at the bottom condition level and resurfaces in the second-lowest money condition. He’s worth using here, though Coaster and Regalanthropist drop a couple of condition classes and both are due for better.